{"id":1032,"date":"2026-03-06T05:29:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T05:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/?p=1032"},"modified":"2026-09-06T07:16:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-06T07:16:39","slug":"venezuela-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/venezuela-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"From Venezuela to Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Logic of the \u201cVenezuelan Model\u201d in Iran: Skin-Shedding, Not Regime Change<\/b><\/strong> (<\/b><\/strong>January 2026<\/b><\/strong>). <\/b><\/strong>By Raghu Kondori | Shahvand Think Tank.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

What is raised under the title of the “Venezuelan model” for Iran is neither a democratic transition project nor a plan for revolutionary overthrow, but a scenario for controlled regime shedding. The goal is to preserve the overall political system by eliminating costly and crisis-inducing elements, and rearranging the power elites within a framework manageable for foreign actors. The focus is on changing the “face of governance,” not transforming the “nature of power.”time+1<\/p>\n

The removal of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist (Velayat-e Faqih) is defined not as the collapse of the system, but as discarding a worn-out shell. This removal cannot be merely legal; the survival of Velayat-e Faqih\u2014even in a weakened form\u2014remains a focal point for ideological and security mobilization, disrupting the shedding process. The fate of Ali Khamenei carries geopolitical importance: keeping him alive under arrest poses a strategic risk and could activate dormant terrorist cells. The swift and irreversible elimination of the leader prevents revolutionary mobilization.<\/p>\n

Institutional Restructuring and Succession Engineering<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Succession takes shape through intra-systemic engineering. Khamenei, the Leader’s household (Bit-e Rahbari), and key obstructive figures are sidelined; limited arrests and trials of military and security personnel\u2014as “direct perpetrators of massacres”\u2014serve to vent public rage. These are tools for rebuilding legitimacy, not transitional justice.\u200b<\/p>\n

The IRGC’s economic cartels are preserved. The IRGC is merged into the regular army to unify command, not to strip power. Intelligence agencies are centralized under the government. Velayat-e Faqih is either eliminated or reduced to a purely symbolic role; figures like Mohammad Khatami or Hassan Khomeini could fill a ceremonial position, while a government centered on Tajzadeh-types manages the controlled transition.\u200b<\/p>\n

Shedding Coalition and Referendum Engineering<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Reformists, Mujahedin-e Khalq, separatists, and leftists overlap on shedding: opposition to the Pahlavi monarchy and preservation of the Islamic Republic. The referendum is limited to “Islamic Republic or Iranian Republic” to exclude monarchy. However, a genuine plebiscite\u2014with majority support for Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi\u2014would challenge the project. Geopolitics: strikes and negotiations stabilize shedding; oil management, nuclear dismantlement, and isolating Pahlavi. Success depends on the Prince’s strategy, monarchist base reactions, and the people’s response.<\/p>\n

Israel and U.S. Strategy<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Delay in strikes buys time for shedding. Israel prioritizes full regime overthrow; the U.S. seeks oil stability. Netanyahu pressures Trump for attacks beyond red lines. The response will determine the project’s fate.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Logic of the \u201cVenezuelan Model\u201d in Iran: Skin-Shedding, Not Regime Change (January 2026). By Raghu Kondori | Shahvand Think Tank.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1033,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[12,15,174,212,82,229],"class_list":["post-1032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-essay","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-prince-reza-pahlavi","tag-u-s","tag-venezuela","tag-venezuelan-model"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":8}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/Iran-V-EN.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1032"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1032\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1588,"href":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1032\/revisions\/1588"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1033"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}