{"id":1032,"date":"2026-03-06T05:29:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T05:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/?p=1032"},"modified":"2026-03-08T12:46:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T12:46:28","slug":"venezuela-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/venezuela-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"From Venezuela to Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><b>The Logic of the \u201cVenezuelan Model\u201d in Iran: Skin-Shedding, Not Regime Change<\/b><\/strong><strong><b> (<\/b><\/strong><strong><b>January 2026<\/b><\/strong><strong><b>). <\/b><\/strong><strong><b>By Raghu Kondori | Shahvand Think Tank.<\/b><\/strong><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>What is raised under the title of the &#8220;Venezuelan model&#8221; for Iran is neither a democratic transition project nor a plan for revolutionary overthrow, but a scenario for controlled regime shedding. The goal is to preserve the overall political system by eliminating costly and crisis-inducing elements, and rearranging the power elites within a framework manageable for foreign actors. The focus is on changing the &#8220;face of governance,&#8221; not transforming the &#8220;nature of power.&#8221;time+1<\/p>\n<p>The removal of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist (Velayat-e Faqih) is defined not as the collapse of the system, but as discarding a worn-out shell. This removal cannot be merely legal; the survival of Velayat-e Faqih\u2014even in a weakened form\u2014remains a focal point for ideological and security mobilization, disrupting the shedding process. The fate of Ali Khamenei carries geopolitical importance: keeping him alive under arrest poses a strategic risk and could activate dormant terrorist cells. The swift and irreversible elimination of the leader prevents revolutionary mobilization.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><b>Institutional Restructuring and Succession Engineering<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Succession takes shape through intra-systemic engineering. Khamenei, the Leader&#8217;s household (Bit-e Rahbari), and key obstructive figures are sidelined; limited arrests and trials of military and security personnel\u2014as &#8220;direct perpetrators of massacres&#8221;\u2014serve to vent public rage. These are tools for rebuilding legitimacy, not transitional justice.\u200b<\/p>\n<p>The IRGC&#8217;s economic cartels are preserved. The IRGC is merged into the regular army to unify command, not to strip power. Intelligence agencies are centralized under the government. Velayat-e Faqih is either eliminated or reduced to a purely symbolic role; figures like Mohammad Khatami or Hassan Khomeini could fill a ceremonial position, while a government centered on Tajzadeh-types manages the controlled transition.\u200b<\/p>\n<h2><strong><b>Shedding Coalition and Referendum Engineering<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Reformists, Mujahedin-e Khalq, separatists, and leftists overlap on shedding: opposition to the Pahlavi monarchy and preservation of the Islamic Republic. The referendum is limited to &#8220;Islamic Republic or Iranian Republic&#8221; to exclude monarchy. However, a genuine plebiscite\u2014with majority support for Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi\u2014would challenge the project. Geopolitics: strikes and negotiations stabilize shedding; oil management, nuclear dismantlement, and isolating Pahlavi. Success depends on the Prince&#8217;s strategy, monarchist base reactions, and the people&#8217;s response.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><b>Israel and U.S. Strategy<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Delay in strikes buys time for shedding. Israel prioritizes full regime overthrow; the U.S. seeks oil stability. Netanyahu pressures Trump for attacks beyond red lines. The response will determine the project&#8217;s fate.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1033\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1033\" style=\"width: 150px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1033 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/shahvand.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/Iran-V-EN-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"The Logic of the \u201cVenezuelan Model\u201d in Iran: Skin-Shedding, Not Regime Change\u00a0((January 2026)). .\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1033\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">By Raghu Kondori | Shahvand Think Tank<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Logic of the \u201cVenezuelan Model\u201d in Iran: Skin-Shedding, Not Regime Change (January 2026). By Raghu Kondori | Shahvand Think Tank.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1033,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[12,15,174,212,82,229],"class_list":["post-1032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-essay","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-prince-reza-pahlavi","tag-u-s","tag-venezuela","tag-venezuelan-model"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>From Venezuela to Iran - Shahvand think tank<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Logic of the \u201cVenezuelan Model\u201d in Iran: Skin-Shedding, Not Regime Change\u00a0((January 2026)). 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