Unstructured Collapse: The Imperative of Preparedness for Iran’s Transitional Period.

Raghu Kondori | Shahvand Think Tank.

With the deepening of domestic crises, the heightened risk of renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, and the regime’s mounting international isolation, the Islamic Republic is moving along a trajectory of collapse. Unlike classical revolutions, however, contemporary Iran lacks any cohesive domestic force—including monarchists—capable of seizing power at the moment of regime downfall.

 

This organizational vacuum makes it essential to prepare for the prospect of unstructured collapse, and to prevent it from devolving into chaos. Preparedness is not a theoretical warning but a practical necessity—one that must be articulated through an Emergency Period Handbook, grounded in the logic of Circular Philosophy.

 

1. Why Collapse Is the Most Likely Scenario

 

Several factors suggest that collapse, rather than an organized overthrow, represents the most probable outcome:

Absence of grassroots organization within Iran

Systematic repression of political and civic associations

Deep internal crises of the regime—economic, legitimacy-related, and military

The risk of renewed war with Israel, which could precipitate sudden collapse

Under these conditions, collapse is likely to occur spontaneously, not through a coordinated revolutionary movement.

 

2. The Dangers of a Power Vacuum: From Opportunity to Catastrophe

 

Collapse without preparation risks catastrophic consequences:

Territorial fragmentation by ethnic or foreign actors

Looting and destruction of critical infrastructure

Civil war among illegitimate armed factions

Squandering of a historic opportunity for national reconstruction

Preventing these outcomes requires pre-designed institutions capable of immediate intervention at the moment of collapse. These are detailed in the Emergency Period Handbook.

 

3. The Solution: The Emergency Period Handbook

 

The Handbook provides an operational roadmap for moving from collapse toward reconstruction. It outlines the creation of institutions tasked with:

Interim Governance to preserve national cohesion

Emergency Reconstruction to safeguard vital infrastructure

National Narrative Center to cultivate a unifying cultural story of resilience and victory

National Union Forum to facilitate dialogue across diverse groups and prevent conflict

Alternative Governance Design to chart the transition toward a permanent political structure

To secure legitimacy, these institutions must be designed in the language of unity, grounded in Iranian national symbols, and based on non-ideological mechanisms that can earn public trust.

 

4. The Role of Monarchists: From Paleness to Constructive Engagement

 

While monarchists remain organizationally absent within Iran, they can nonetheless play a critical role abroad by:

Leading structural design through a centralized Design Center.

Entering the political arena with the rhetoric of unity rather than exclusivity

Employing national symbols as instruments of inclusion, not exclusion

In the moment of collapse, legitimacy will derive from preparedness and effectiveness, not from historical claims or slogans. Monarchists, if they adopt the language of service, can become an indispensable component of the reconstruction process.

 

5. Circular Philosophy: Guiding Collapse Toward Renewal

 

Within the framework of Circular Philosophy, collapse is not an end but the beginning of renewal. Each proposed institution in the Handbook represents a reconstruction circle:

National Narrative → Cultural Circle

Proposed Institutions → Political Circle

Reconstruction Committee → Executive Circle

Union Forums → Social Circle

Design Center → Foresight Circle

Together, these circles guide Iran’s transition from collapse to reconstruction. The circle embodies the language of unity—not exclusion, but synergy.

 

In the absence of internal organization capable of orchestrating regime change, and with collapse as the most probable trajectory, Iran’s survival depends on preparing to manage the power vacuum. Such preparation requires:

an alternative governance structure

a comprehensive Emergency Period Handbook

and a unifying cultural narrative

The article sounds the alarm, the Handbook provides the tools, and the circle gives meaning. Only when these three layers operate simultaneously can Iran move from collapse to reconstruction.